On the dog walk today I asked Nick when he thought we’d have a space elevator that could lift 1kg from the surface to orbit.I think Nick is being foolishly optimistic, but Travis is guilty of not anticipating a massive uptick in enabling technology. Something like what happened in England in the first decade after Watt perfected thesteam engine, but with more acceleration. If the steam engine was a light shining a dark era the coming decade is going to be a laser beam.
I was thinking 35 years.
Nick said “With 75% confidence…10 years”.
OK, what are everyone else’s bets?? Feel free to divide into “1kg to orbit” and “1 man to orbit”.
My bets are 35 and 40 years respectively.
I am of course optimistic.