Saturday, July 16, 2005

An American Hiroshima

I miss some aspects of living in a huge city (most recently DFW) but the thought of what could happen makes me miss it not quite so much.
Subject: An American Hiroshima
Jerry:
From searchs initiated after hearing the intro to "The Savage Nation" today (michaelsavage.com no references to article yet on web site but considerable other information regarding Islamic terrorism).

Mr. Savage noted that he does not have any independent information regarding this scenario and cannot judge the veracity, but there are a number of web sites which come up when searching on the phrase "American Hiroshima."

Thiis appears to be the original cite on www.worldnetdaily.com (consider the source)
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=45203

WASHINGTON – As London recovers from the latest deadly al-Qaida attack that killed at least 50, top U.S. government officials are contemplating what they consider to be an inevitable and much bigger assault on America – one likely to kill millions, destroy the economy and fundamentally alter the course of history, reports Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin.

According to captured al-Qaida leaders and documents, the plan is called the "American Hiroshima" and involves the multiple detonation of nuclear weapons already smuggled into the U.S. over the Mexican border with the help of the MS-13 street gang and other organized crime groups.

Al-Qaida has obtained at least 40 nuclear weapons from the former Soviet Union – including suitcase nukes, nuclear mines, artillery shells and even some missile warheads.

But the most disturbing news is that high level U.S. officials now believe at least some of those weapons have been smuggled into the U.S. for use in the near future in major cities as part of this "American Hiroshima" plan, according to an upcoming book, "The Al Qaeda Connection: International Terrorism, Organized Crime and the Coming Apocalypse," by Paul L. Williams, a former FBI consultant.

According to Williams, former CIA Director George Tenet informed President Bush one month after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks that at least two suitcase nukes had reached al-Qaida operatives in the U.S.

According to Williams' sources, thousands of al-Qaida sleeper agents have now been forward deployed into the U.S. to carry out their individual roles in the coming "American Hiroshima" plan.

Bin Laden's goal, according to the book, is to kill at least 4 million Americans, 2 million of whom must be children. Only then, bin Laden has said, would the crimes committed by America on the Arab and Muslim world be avenged.

This is the most recent article in the stack of follow-up:
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=45246

WASHINGTON – Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo., a staunch critic of the federal government's lax immigration and border enforcement policies, said yesterday he would request a briefing from the Justice Department on information it has on plans revealed by WND this week for a nuclear attack on the U.S. by al-Qaida terrorists.

Tancredo said he was greatly alarmed by the report and would seek whatever information he could get from the nation's law enforcement authorities – either in classified or unclassified reports.

Al-Qaida's plans, known as "America's Hiroshima" according to captured terrorists and terrorist documents, calls for the multiple detonation of nuclear weapons, already in the possession of Osama bin Laden's operatives currently inside the U.S.


It is certainly a matter of concern. There's only one way to top the 911 attacks. But of course we are not really in a war with Islamic jehadists. And it has been longer since we declared war on terror than we participated in World War II. Of course we haven't precisely mobilized for this war. And see the Gerecht article about Gitmo.


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Subject: An American Hiroshima

I don't know about anyone else, but my first thought was that this is unlikely. Given that the newest of these former Soviet warheads is now about 15 years old, and that none of them has been stored properly, I'd guess the chances that any of them will actually detonate is probably very small. (I've read estimates that even when the Soviets were actively maintaining and remanufacturing their warheads they had an expected fizzle rate of >50%. What must it be now?) Of course, even a fizzle results in a mess of plutonium all over the place, but that can be dealt with.

-- Robert Bruce Thompson


I think the Russian data indicate that the Secondary (fusion) part of their devices had about 50% failure rate. I am not aware of the numbers regarding the primary, nor is my expertise sufficient to form an actual estimate. I know that we assigned a pretty high number to the probability that our weapons would detonate once they reached the target when I did war analysis models. I had no way to evaluate that number, but I sure made it clear that I needed the real numbers, not something to make Sandia look good.

Nor do I know much about the shelf life of fission (as opposed to fusion) weapons. A fission weapon would be enough to ruin your whole day: see Hiroshima as an example.

I also know that the Company used to buy fissionables, no questions asked, at pretty high rates, but I have no idea if (1) that program has continued, or (2) if they have raised their bids now. It used to be you could sell enough fissionables to make a fission weapon for $4 million cash on the barrelhead, no questions asked, no identification required. But that was a while ago.


Thompson is right - a nuclear attack is unlikely. On the flip side - on Septermber 10, 2001 the events of the next day were unlikely as well.
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